Weather Researchers Anticipate Active Hurricane Season Even With Slow Start

Weather researchers anticipate an active hurricane season again this year. With the possibility of 14 to 21 named storms this year, including three to six major hurricanes, 2022 could become the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane year, even with the slow start to the season we’ve experienced. 

“Given the current observations of large-scale teleconnections and sea-surface temperatures in the main development regions, all signs point toward an above-average tropical season for the Atlantic basin,” explained Dr.  Victor Gensini, Professor of Geographic and Atmospheric Sciences, NIU and Opterrix Advisor. 

The increase in major storm events affects homeowners and residents, forcing evacuations and expensive preparations. And it’s not just homeowners who are impacted — the insurance companies who insure properties in these storm-prone areas are also affected by the increase in volatile weather. 

Read on to learn more about what the above-average hurricane season means to insurers.

The reasons for the above-average hurricane activity this year are varied. They include several different climate factors happening across the globe:

• La Niña is expected to continue through the hurricane season
• Above-average surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
• Weaker than usual tropical trade winds in the Atlantic 
• Stronger West African monsoons can create strong waves that feed into hurricane activity 

These climate change factors combine to create a more volatile hurricane season with the potential to impact hundreds of thousands of people. And this increasing volatility also increases storm-related costs as insurance companies help people rebuild their homes and lives. 

2021 saw 20 separate billion-dollar weather and climate events in the US, including hurricanes Ida and Nicholas. Tornadoes, hailstorms, floods, droughts, and tropical storms made up some of the other billion-dollar events. As these extreme weather events increase in frequency and severity, they are also becoming less predictable. And this leads to challenges for insurers and policyholders alike. 

And even though the 2022 hurricane season has started slowly, that isn’t an accurate predictor of how the rest of the year will fare. Gensini commented, “A slow start to the season does not indicate that the rest of the year will be inactive. For example, the first major hurricane in the Atlantic basin during the high-profile year of 2017 was Gert, which did not form until mid-August. As with any season, it is more difficult to forecast how many storms may make landfall in the U.S. versus just forecasting the number of potential storms in the basin.”