This year is on track to be another record-breaking year for weather-related disasters in the United States. By mid-August, the nation had already experienced a staggering 19 confirmed billion-dollar weather and climate-related events, including tornados, hail, hurricanes, wildfires, and winter storms. Since the U.S. government started tracking the economic toll of weather-related events through seven months of 2024, we are now surpassing $49.6 billion, making it the costliest on record.
A defining feature of 2024's weather has been the frequency and severity of tornados. As of mid-August, there have been 1,325 confirmed tornados, with the final cost assessment still pending by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Noteworthy is that of the 19 billion-dollar-plus severe convective storm events, 11 involved tornados, causing significant damage to homes, businesses, infrastructure, and agriculture.
To understand how extraordinary this year's tornado activity has been, consider this: The average number of billion-dollar disasters caused by severe storms, including tornados, from 2014 to 2023 was about 13 per year. The United States exceeded that average in 2024, with four months remaining.
As noted in the map below, large areas of the midwestern plains and the Ohio River Valley have been under a significant number of tornado watches and warnings as of August. States like Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, and Missouri have been particularly affected compared to other regions. While the Southeast, including the Emerald Coast and southern Georgia, has also faced some tornado activity, it has been less active than the central U.S.
Overall, data for 2024 (January through July) confirms this trend, revealing the highest concentration of tornado watches stretching north from East Texas through East Kansas-Southwest Missouri into West Iowa. West Kentucky and the Florida Panhandle have also experienced a significant number of tornado watches during this period.
Map of the number of 2024 tornado watches by U.S. county, with historical tornado tracks colorized by E.F. strength.
The above confirms this is the highest number of tornados in this period, only behind 2011, since record-keeping began in the 1950s.
Map of the tornado tracks that occurred in 2024, colorized by month.
The increasing frequency and severity of severe convective storms profoundly affect insurance loss activity. Remarkably, in the last five years, including 2024, there has been a record increase in insured losses associated with severe convective storms.
Compounding this rising cost is inflation (cost of goods) and population growth in tornado-prone areas, expanding the "target" for these storms, resulting in higher insured values at risk. A direct outcome is the need for increased rates, causing significant pricing increases for homeowners in affected regions.
While the 2024 season has been particularly active for tornados, the U.S. has also seen a pair of notable landfalling hurricanes. Hurricane Beryl, an early arrival for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, reached Category 5 strength before slowing down over the Yucatan. Making a second landfall in Texas as a Category 1, Beryl brought strong winds and heavy rainfall to the Houston area, leading to widespread power outages, infrastructure damage, and devastating flooding. The storm impacted areas beyond Texas, with severe flooding and tornados reported in Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, and parts of the Midwest and New England.
Moody's RMS estimates that U.S. insured losses from Hurricane Beryl will likely fall between $2.5 billion and $4.5 billion, including damage from wind, storm surge, and coastal and inland flooding. The NCEI estimates Beryl's total damages to be $6 billion in insured and uninsured losses.
Map of Hurricane Beryl's storm track and 3-day rainfall after making landfall on July 8.
Although Hurricane Debby made landfall as a relatively weak Category 1 hurricane, its slow movement and prolonged heavy rainfall caused extensive flooding across a large portion of the Eastern U.S. Debby's unusual path, which included restrengthening over the Atlantic and a slow crawl up the East Coast, led to inundation from Florida to New York. Flash flooding, sometimes with rainfall exceeding 3 inches per hour, hit rural communities particularly hard, forcing evacuations and damaging infrastructure in areas like South Carolina and the Finger Lakes region. Storm surge along Florida's Gulf Coast also caused significant flooding and property damage.
Moody's RMS estimates the insured loss from Hurricane Debby in the U.S. private market to approach $1.5 billion. These estimates include insured losses from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding.
Map of Hurricane Debby's storm track and 7-day rainfall after making landfall on August 5.
2024 is already a stark reminder of the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The exceptionally active tornado season and the impact of hurricanes like Beryl and Debby have resulted in substantial financial losses and widespread disruption in the first eight months of the year. Loss totals are likely to increase as we enter the peak of hurricane season, during which forecasters predict the development of 5 to 10 more hurricanes through the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Insurers and risk managers must remain vigilant and prepared for the challenges posed by such weather patterns while supporting efforts to mitigate the long-term effects of climate change.
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